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AL Playoff Races
2010-08-19
Now that the All-Star game has passed and the trade deadline is approaching, all eyes in baseball are focused on the pennant races. As “the dog days of August” approach, here’s a look at what baseball fans can expect to see in the American League divisional and wild card races.
AL West: Texas has continued to separate from the rest of the pack, now holding a seven game lead over Los Angeles. Seattle has fallen 19 games back and is out of the race after a dismal offensive showing this season. For a while, it appeared to be a two-team race between Texas and Los Angeles, who has had a stranglehold on the division in recent years. However, Oakland has shown signs of life, winning 8 of their last 10 games to claw within 7 ½ games of Texas.
As of now, it appears to be the Rangers’ division to lose. Led by Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero, they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their starting pitching has been decent but it got a huge boost with the addition of Cliff Lee, who will give them an undisputed ace with experience pitching in big games. The Angels figure to have a better shot than Oakland but they will need to start hitting and improve on their .257 team batting average. The bold acquisition of pitcher Dan Haren shows they haven’t given up. Despite this persistence, they can be expected to eventually fall short of Texas. The line at www.sportsbook.com on the Angles winning the AL West is +1500, and for a team who has won the division so many times as a baseball bettor you know they know how to win it.
AL Central: With three teams bunched within two games of the division lead, this may be the tightest division in all of baseball. The Chicago White Sox hold a very tenuous one game lead over Minnesota, with Detroit two back.
This one figures to be competitive all the way to the end as none of the three teams have a distinct advantage. The White Sox seem to be the most well rounded of any team, led by three very powerful bats and a well-balanced starting rotation. However, it’s been a few years since they’ve been in contention so there’s no telling how the inexperienced players will respond to the added pressure. Led by two of the best players in the American League, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, Minnesota knows what that feeling is like, too, having missed the playoffs every year since 2006. The Tigers have an MVP and Triple Crown candidate in Miguel Cabrera and will be desperately trying to atone for last year’s late-season collapse; the biggest question mark for them is inexperienced starting pitching. This division is so hard to call and it may even come down to the last day but in the end, I give a slight edge to Minnesota.
AL East: Few people would argue with the opinion that this is the best division in baseball, especially with three teams who can call themselves championship contenders. Unfortunately, only a maximum of two can make it to the playoffs so either New York, Boston, or Tampa Bay will be left out. The Yankees are currently in control of the division and it would be hard to envision them missing the playoffs altogether. They currently have the best record in baseball to go along with a potent lineup, a good corps of starting pitchers, and the best closer in baseball. Tampa Bay is three games behind them and holds baseball’s second best record. The Rays starting pitching has been outstanding and if their offensive production increases just a little, they could challenge the Yankees. The real unlucky team in this division is the Red Sox, who are eight games back but would be leading the AL Central with their 55-44 record.
The Red Sox could make a run at the division but in the end, their best chance will be to win the wild card. Their line at www.sportsbook.com is +3000 to win the AL East this year, which is a very intriguing baseball bet. If they do end up as the wild card that leaves the Yankees and Rays for the division and I smell an upset here. The Rays have been one of the top two teams in baseball thus far with an offense that has largely underachieved. If players like Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett can get things going, the Rays will win at a greater pace than before. The Yankees just lost Andy Pettitte to the DL and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out; he has been the Yankees best pitcher and his absence could really hurt. Also, the Yankees are an older team and in the past, they’ve begun to rest players once it’s clear they’ll make the playoffs. If they clinch a playoff spot early and the past holds, they may ultimately not care if they’re the AL East champion or Wild Card winners.
Wild Card: That effectively leaves the Red Sox and Yankees for the wild card.
Although other teams are within range of the Red Sox, it’s unlikely that they’ll sustain the same pace for an entire year. The Red Sox have tremendous team power and a good group of starting pitchers but they’ve simply had too many injuries this year. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were supposed to be big contributors on the mound but have missed significant time, as have Jacoby Ellsbury and former MVP Dustin Pedroia. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox make a run but the injuries have caused a deficit to the Yankees that will ultimately be too much to overcome.
Several Intriguing Tuesday Interleague Matchups
2010-06-22
Eleven new MLB Interleague series’ begin on Tuesday and several of them boast plenty of standings and betting intrigue. In fact, f Programa Descuentos Deportivos ive of the matchups pit teams with winning records against one another. Even the one National League head-to-head matchup finds pitching aces squaring off. It figures to be a great night on the diamond, one which you’ll probably want to be tuned in to MLB Network for. Let’s take a quick look at some of what will be taking place tonight. Get more on each of the 15 games on the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com.
San Francisco (38-30) at Houston (26-44), 8:05 p.m. EDT
eigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum looks to beat Roy Oswalt and dominate the reeling Astros for the third time this year, and the San Francisco Giants can improve to 7-0 against Houston this year as they open a three-game set Tuesday night.
Lincecum, who is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA in seven career starts against the Astros, will be opposed by Astros’ ace Roy Oswalt, who owns a 3.12 ERA this season and deserves better than his 5-8 record. His WHIP is a miniscule 1.083.
The Astros have totaled 12 runs versus San Francisco in the first six meetings this year. Those numbers aren't a huge surprise as Houston ranks 28th in the majors with 3.37 runs per game while the Giants are third with a 3.33 ERA.
A key trend to note, the Giants have done very well against the league’s best pitchers of late:
• SAN FRANCISCO is 14-6 (+11.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
San Francisco is a -140 road favorite with a total of 6.5 OV -115 at Sportsbook.com.
St. Louis (38-31) at Toronto (38-32), 7:07 p.m. EDT
As a sign of just how tough things are in the A.L. East Division, St. Louis and Toronto are separated by just a half-game in won-lost records but the Cardinals lead the N.L. Central by a game while the Jays trail the Yankees by five.
St. Louis starts Jaime Garcia, an impressive young left-hander, who boasts a 6-3 record and 1.59 ERA to date as the teams open a three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday night.
Garcia has only allowed two home runs in 79 1-3 innings this season, but Toronto could prove to be tougher to contain. The Blue Jays have connected in 17 of their last 18 home games and lead the majors with 106 homers overall. That leads to a very interesting StatFox Power Trend:
• TORONTO is 14-7 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. The average score was TORONTO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Brett Cecil (7-3, 3.58) takes the mound for Toronto, and both starters are taking on their opponent tonight for the first time.
Toronto, who hasn't faced St. Louis since winning two of three games at home in June 2005, is 13-5 at home since May 1.
Oddsmakers are seeing this game as a tossup, as you’ll have to lay -105 with either team.
Detroit (38-30) at New York Mets (39-30), 7:10 p.m. EDT
Two teams nipping at the heels of the leaders in their respective divisions get together in New York on Tuesday when the Mets host the Tigers.
Detroit, who trails Minnesota by 1-1/2 games in the A.L. Central, sends ace Justin Verlander to the hill. Verlander (8-4, 3.54 ERA) has posted a 2.86 ERA while winning each of his three June starts after compiling a 5.02 ERA in losing his last two May outings.
Life on the road has been a problem for Detroit. The team has dropped eight of 11 as the visitor, with the starting rotation posting a 6.08 ERA. Detroit now begins a nine-game trip, which includes three-game series at New York (39-30), NL-best Atlanta and Minnesota.
The Mets have won 10 of 11 at Citi Field and are second in the NL with a 24-10 home record, while the Braves lead the majors at 24-7.
Jonothan Niese (4-2, 3.64) gets the ball for the hosts and he has won three consecutive starts with a 1.57 ERA. He has been especially tough at Citi Field, 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA over his last five home starts - all Mets victories.
The Mets, who trail the Braves by 2 1/2 games, own the N.L.’s best interleague record at 9-3.
Verlander and the Tigers are -130 favorites with a total of 7.5 OV -115.
San Diego (40-29) at Tampa Bay (42-27), 7:10 p.m. EDT
Perhaps the best matchup of all this week has the Padres visiting the Rays, as out of the top spot in the AL East for the first time in two months, Tampa Bay looks to bounce back from its first losing road trip of the season.
Doing so Tuesday night could be tough against Mat Latos and the NL West-leading Padres, who come to Tropicana Field for a three-game set.
The Rays (42-27) have lost seven of 10 after a 2-4 trip, dropping them into second place. Tampa had been in first since April 22.
The Rays will have their hands full, facing Mat Latos (7-4, 3.19 ERA), who has gone 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last eight starts. Tampa bay will give the ball to rookie Wade Davis (5-7, 4.94). The right-hander has gone 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts despite striking out 15 and walking one.
Tampa Bay's struggles are due in part to lack of offense. Aside from a 14-9 defeat to the Marlins on June 11, the Rays scored 11 runs in the other six losses during their current 3-7 stretch. That leads to a pretty nice FoxSheets System for Tuesday’s tilt:
• Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (108-64 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.8%, +46.4 units. Rating = 3*)
If you want the Rays, you’ll need to be willing to lay -125 against one of the league’s hottest pitchers.
Boston (43-28) at Colorado (36-33), 8:40 p.m. EDT
The last time the Boston Red Sox and Jon Lester were in Denver, they were celebrating a championship. The way they're playing right now, another one in 2010 seems like a real possibility. The Red Sox put their season-best six-game winning streak on the line as -150 favorites vs. the Rockies as the teams open up a 3-game set.
Boston (43-28) is ½ game from the AL East lead after going 24-8 overall since May 18, tied with Atlanta for the best record in the majors in that stretch. Jon Lester (8-2, 3.13 ERA) is a big reason for Boston's surge, going 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last 11 starts. He goes on Tuesday versus Colorado rookie Jhoulys Chacin (3-6, 4.00).
The Rockies (36-33) have won six of nine, and come into this series as winners of 30 of their last 37 interleague home games, including a three-game sweep of Toronto from June 11-13.
Something clearly has to give in this series with such powerful streaks on the line. For tonight’s game, perhaps this angles winds up being the difference:
• COLORADO is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 1*)
Los Angeles Dodgers (38-31) at Los Angeles Angels (39-33), 10:05 p.m. EDT
Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Angels capped their longest trip of the season with their first road sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Angels are looking to duplicate those results, this time at Angel Stadium, as they open a season-high 12-game homestand Tuesday night.
The Angels, winners of 17 of 23 in the Freeway Series, will send the struggling Ervin Santana (6-5, 3.91 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. After winning five straight starts, the right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two outings.
Trying to avoid matching a season-high five-game slide, the Dodgers (38-31) will counter Santana with the red-hot Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.96), who has gone 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last eight starts.
The Dodgers are 2-7 in their last nine games and have fallen 2-games back of San Diego in the N.L. West. They have also dropped seven straight versus the AL, part of this rare poor angle involving Joe Torre:
• TORRE is 16-26 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game as the manager of LA DODGERS. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.6, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Still, with the pitching mismatch being given more than its fair share of credit, it is the Dodgers that are the favorite on the road, -125 according to Sportsbook.com.
Weekend MLB matchups
2010-05-04
For a matchup in the west, fans will be looking towards San Francisco and Colorado this weekend. Normally nowhere near the top, San Francisco is enjoying a nice start to their season, 4 games ahead of the Dodgers and Colorado is in the perfect position to take over that spot as they are just one game behind. Check out the lines at www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
The Rockies find themselves with a bit more of a disadvantage given the current holes in their pitching lineup. With 2 starters on the disabled list, including Jorge De La Rosa, they are likely to start Esmil Rogers on Saturday. With only one start last season it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure. And don’t forget, the team is still spinning from their first ever no-hitter. Not a bad way to kick off the 2010 season.
The Giants will likely open with Matt Cain, who has an 8-6 record with the Rockies. Having faced the Rockies more than any other club, 18 times, he should be able to walk out with confidence, knowing he is the more experienced pitcher. Cain has a good shot of taking this home field advantage and advancing his record against Colorado.
Sunday, the Rockies will probably plan Jhoulys Chacin who is coming off a great win against the Diamondbacks (12-1). He has proven his ability to master the fastball at this level and might just be able to work his magic again against the Giants.
That being said, the Giants will be bringing out Jonathan Sanchez, whose amazing statistics might be enough to rattle the young pitcher. Having logged his first every back-to-back double digit strikeout games against Pittsburgh and Sand Diego he is itching to improve his record against the Rockies.
The Giants have started their season hot. The Rockies have been contenders for the past few years and the Giants are working hard to prove they are worthy of their position. They know working the numbers this early in the season could help to promote their confidence as a team as well as, hopefully, drum up some fan support. I think the Giants will do anything they can to keep their current position over the formerly dominating force of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Look for them to be on fire this weekend.
As for the Rockies, it’s a rough road back when you are dealt such harsh blows early in the season. Their pitching staff has taken a major hit. But like many before them, they might just be in the position to see their club come through by calling up young talent. Starting brings pressure, but these guys are hungry. If they can stay focused they might just prove themselves as the right man to fill out the pitching staff.
Giants pitching staff need to watch out for Ian Stewart and Clint Barnes. Ian is hitting at .310 right now and some think Clint is ready for his next home run. The Rockies should look out for Eli Whiteside who has been on a bit of a hot streak, taking advantage of runners on base to make the Giants leap ahead.